The Charles Schwab Challenge

Wyndham Clark just became the only player in PGA Tour history with multiple final-round 60s or better en route to a win (2024 Pebble Beach, 2026 Byron Nelson). He put together a god-tier back-nine 28 to finish 30 under for the week, three clear of Si Woo Kim, who led by five strokes after Round 2. TPC Craig Ranch spent $22 million on a renovation after Scheffler's −31 record. The winning score dropped by one shot.

Clark has spent the better part of two years struggling publicly — with his game, with his temperament, with a villain reputation he's earned through outbursts like the one at Oakmont that got him banned from the course. Two years between victories is a long time when the last one also required a 60. Maybe this one expels some demons. Craig Ranch remains the laughing stock of PGA Tour venues, but a win is a win.

Forty miles from Craig Ranch, and a different sport entirely

Back to reality. Colonial's winning score hasn't exceeded −15 since 2018. The fairways measure 27 yards across on average — third-narrowest on Tour. The greens are 5,000 square feet of bentgrass at about a Stimp 13. Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Spieth, Fitzpatrick: all out. Clark, as has become tradition, withdrew after his Nelson win. Åberg is the clear favorite with an implied win probability of approximately 10%, with Henley, JT and Fowler trailing in the range of 4–5%. The 80th edition of the PGA Tour's longest-running non-major at a single venue, and the field is fairly open.

The ’82 Schwab Scrambler — this year's champion's prize.

Nicklaus in the tartan plaid — 17 colors, awarded since 1952.

Streaming: ESPN+ and PGA Tour Live for featured groups and early-round coverage.

Surviving the Horseshoe

Perry Maxwell routed Colonial along the south bend of the Trinity River in 1936. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner spent $20 million restoring it in 2023–24, working from 1941 U.S. Open photographs: they removed roughly 20 bunkers, lowered greens to reopen ground-game approach angles, brought the Trinity back into play on two holes, and reintroduced barrancas on nine others. The restored Colonial debuted in 2024. Last year was the first full season in mature form. The course plays to about +0.26 strokes over par on average — moderately tough, not a birdie-fest and not a brute — and as one of just five invitational events on Tour, the smaller field tilts toward past champions and horses for courses. The greens are 007XL bentgrass mown to 0.100 inches; the TifTuf Bermuda rough sits at about two and a half inches. Details that matter when every approach is a 7-iron into a 5,000-square-foot target.

The Horrible Horseshoe — 3, 4, 5 — traces a U against the river and has played as the toughest three-hole stretch on Tour since ShotLink began tracking in 2003. No. 4 is a 247-yard par 3 where the tournament has never produced an ace. No. 5 is 481 yards with the Trinity running the entire right side: consistently the hardest hole on the course and one of the 50 hardest on Tour. Since 1983, those three holes are 7,613 strokes over par in aggregate; the other 15 holes are a combined 1,113 under. Winners don't dominate the Horseshoe — they get through it near even par without a blow-up, then eat up the remaining 15 holes at four or five under per round. Two gears: grind, then attack. (Interactive course map)

The Tour goes to driver only 56% of the time here versus 69% Tour-wide. Pecan and oak frame nearly every hole, and offline tee shots don't just cost fairways — they block approach angles. Good Drives Gained and Fairways Gained matter more than raw distance off the tee. Roughly 82% of approaches come from inside 200 yards, with the bulk concentrated 125–175. And because this is a par 70 with only two par 5s, par-4 scoring — especially on the 430–470-yard holes — drives the separation. A par-5 eagle machine is less valuable here than a player who consistently makes birdie on 450-yard par 4s.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Scorecard

First, a look back. The Par+ top two at the Byron Nelson were Scheffler (+2.73) and Si Woo Kim (+2.01). Scheffler finished 3rd; Kim finished 2nd. Keith Mitchell, Par+ #5, finished 5th. Three of the top five picks landed inside the top five on the actual leaderboard. Koepka (#3) and Spieth (#4) finished T14 and T19 — both made the weekend but didn't contend. Clark, the eventual winner, wasn't in the Par+ top 10. A final-round 60 from a player the model ranked mid-pack is not something any composite prices. The honest read: the model nailed the top of the leaderboard and missed the winner entirely. That's golf.

This Week's Model Picks

Colonial should be friendlier to the model. Approach play's 39% share of strokes gained here is the most stable venue-specific weighting on Tour — it has held at that level for years, across renovations and varying field strengths — and stability is where Par+ is most useful.

Åberg leads the field at +1.59, driven by the highest current form score in the field and the best approach-play numbers over his last 24 rounds (+0.97 SG: APP). His course fit ranks fifth despite never having played here. The open question is Sunday. He lost a three-shot 54-hole lead at the Players. He bogeyed three holes in four around the turn at the PGA and finished T4. The ceiling is the highest in the field. So is the variance.

The model's second-ranked player is the one most people won't expect: Rickie Fowler at +1.12, with the second-highest course fit in the entire field (87.6) and the strongest bogey avoidance score among the top 10. Smalley at +1.09 and Henley at +1.00 round out the top four — Henley anchored by the third-best course fit (86.1) and the field's best bogey avoidance, Smalley by the second-hottest current form and strong approach numbers.

Par+ composite: market pricing (35%) + current form (25%) + course fit (20%) + SG:APP L24 (10%) + bogey avoidance (10%). Market implied probability via sportsbooks as of May 25. Course fit archetype: Accuracy/Shot Shaper.

The widest model-market gap sits with Smalley: Par+ ranks him third, the market prices him around 2.8%. His current form is the second-hottest in the field and his accuracy profile maps cleanly to Colonial's demands. Griffin at 3.9% implied but Par+ #14 — with the worst approach numbers among the model's top 20 (SG: APP −0.78) — looks like the clearest case of the market paying for the defending champion's jacket rather than his present game. Justin Thomas, despite the PGA momentum, lands at Par+ #22: his course fit grades 101st in the field, and his bogey avoidance is deeply negative. The market has him at 3.9% implied. The model sees a player whose strengths don't match this venue.

Colonial keeps crowning first-time winners

Four of the last five Colonial champions won their first individual PGA Tour title here — Riley in 2024, Griffin in 2025, Grillo's first win on American soil in 2023, Kokrak's second career victory in 2021 after years of near-misses. The exception was Sam Burns, who was already on a heater. For a course steeped in the legacy of the most deliberate winner in Tour history, Colonial has a strange habit of producing players who figure something out for the first time on this particular week.

The corridors are so narrow and the targets so small that the usual advantages — length, experience, course history — compress. What's left is iron play and nerve, and those don't require a previous winner's circle. This is a week where a name like Eckroat or Putnam can emerge not because the field is weak, but because Colonial strips the game down to a test that doesn't care who you are.

A Thursday afternoon storm is the only real weather variable. If it hits, soft conditions and lower first-round scores for the morning wave; a possible delay for the afternoon starters. Friday through Sunday should be dry and hot — the kind of firm, fast weekend Colonial was designed for.

Each week, a bird native to the tournament's corner of the country.

Painted Bunting  ·  Passerina ciris

The brushy edges along the Trinity River behind Colonial's back nine — tangled hackberry, post oak, native grasses gone to seed — are breeding habitat for one of the most improbable-looking birds in North America. The male Painted Bunting is blue-headed, green-backed, and red-bellied, a color scheme that fits the tournament's famed winners jacket almost too perfectly. The plumage takes two years to develop; first-year males look exactly like the olive-green females, invisible in the understory. They arrive in North Texas from mid-April through May, and Cedar Hill State Park, 30 minutes east, is one of the most reliable spots in the country to find them singing from low perches at dawn.

Range  Breeds Texas to Kansas, April–September; winters Mexico to Panama Habitat  Woodland edges, hedgerows, thickets, brushy streamsides